Election polls put Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump, but how accurate are they?

Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He even had a 10-point lead on one occasion. Here is a look back at polling trends from the last few months.   

Q&A: From the get go, national polls were very favourable to Joe Biden, as we’ve just seen. However, they are not necessarily a good way to predict the result of a presidential election. Let us not forget that in 2016, they predicted a sweeping victory to Hillary Clinton. How accurate are election forecasts in the American context? And how exactly do they work?   

Let us now have a look back at 2016, when opinion polls put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%. How could the polls have been so wrong and, more importantly, is political polling fundamentally broken? For more on this we turn to our in-house political analyst: Tom Masson 

Q&A: Pollsters say that they have learned from past mistakes and that most polling errors are easy to fix? Does that mean that the current polling results are more accurate than past ones? Or will Trump prove the polls wrong again? 

Lou Surrans, Fanny Narvarte, Tom Masson